Apple on track to overtake Samsung in the global smartphone race

Apple is on track to become the world’s largest smartphone maker in 2025, driven by strong demand for its iPhone 17 lineup and a broad wave of device upgrades. It would mark Apple’s first return to the top position since 2011.

The iPhone 17 series, introduced in September, has produced double-digit annual sales growth in the United States and China. Researchers said the models have drawn in consumers who delayed upgrades in recent years. Easing trade tensions between the United States and China and a weaker dollar have also supported Apple’s performance in emerging markets.

Counterpoint projects Apple’s smartphone shipments will rise 10% this year, outpacing Samsung Electronics. The South Korean company is expected to grow 4.6%. The forecast would push Apple ahead of its longtime rival in total global shipments.

The broader smartphone market is set to expand 3.3% in 2025, with Apple’s share expected to reach 19.4%. Analysts said the shift reflects a maturing replacement cycle that is now accelerating. Many buyers who purchased phones during the pandemic period are returning to stores. Counterpoint noted that 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold from 2023 through the second quarter of 2025, creating a pool of future upgrade candidates.

The research firm expects Apple to extend its lead through the decade. A foldable iPhone planned for 2026 and a lower-priced iPhone 17e are projected to lift shipments further. A major design overhaul scheduled for 2027 is also expected to support demand.

These upcoming releases form part of a multiyear effort to refresh the iPhone lineup. The combination of new models and favorable market conditions positions Apple to hold the No. 1 ranking through 2029.

Apple said last month that sales were climbing faster than earlier projections. The company said holiday-quarter revenue may approach $140 billion, which would be near a record for the period.