iPhone Fold won’t save Apple stock

Apple (AAPL) is finally "innovating".

After years of rumors and false starts Apple wants to launch its first foldable.

Reports say it could feature a book style design. A larger screen for video and multitasking. And the ultra thin look Apple has been pushing across its lineup.

That has led some investors to believe this could be the product that pulls Apple out of its innovation slumber.

It won`t.

Apple has a dirty secret…

The iPhone makes up more than half of Apple’s business.

But did you know iPhone unit sales peaked 11 years ago?

Last year, Apple sold about the same amount of iPhones as in 2015. Take a look at iPhone shipments since 2015:

Clearly, Apple’s flagship product is in terminal decline. Yet it has managed to keep revenue growth alive largely by raising iPhone prices.

In 2010, you could buy a brand new iPhone 4 for $199 on contract.

In 2014, the newly released iPhone 6 started at $199–$299 on contract.

Today, the base model iPhone 17 starts at $799. The top-end Pro models can push price up to $2,000.

What is the most you would pay for a smartphone. $2,000 is about it.

There is a limit to what even Apple’s loyal customers will pay.

That tells you everything. Price hikes are no longer doing the heavy lifting.

And look at the bigger picture. Despite its reputation as the most innovative company in America, Apple’s revenue has been largely flat since 2022, hovering around the same levels year after year.

Now, the third leg of the stool is about to collapse for Apple.

First, Apple’s business boomed from selling more iPhones. That’s over.

Then, Apple kept growing sales by hiking prices. Done.

Despite stagnation in its business, Apple’s stock price has still climbed roughly 100% over the past five years. And the company Apple is worth close to $4 trillion.

iPhone shipments down. Sales flat. Stock up. Huh?

Apple kept rising not because its business was booming, but because the valuation of its stock surged.

Now that its valuation is no longer rising… what will propel Apple higher?

Everything about Apple’s stock screams “peak” to me.

The post-iPhone era won’t be kind to Apple’s investors.

To be clear, I'm not saying Apple will go bust.

It has $132.4 billion in cash cash equivalents and marketable securities on the balance sheet. And last year, it earned $112.0 billion in net income. That kind of financial muscle means Apple can keep coasting on past innovations for years.

But you must understand that Apple was the world’s largest and most successful company of the past decade.

When the so-called world leader in innovation isn’t innovating, and its business is stagnating, that’s a major red flag.

iPhone Fold won't save it either. Foldables have been around for a while.

Samsung launched the first Galaxy Fold nearly seven years ago. Since then we have seen version after version. Better hinges. Better screens. Better durability. And yet nothing meaningful changed for Samsung. No surge in demand or mass adoption.

In the end, foldable phones are just a niche product. Now Apple is stepping in and calling it innovation.

It's not the kind of big idea to reboot Apple's stagnation.

Apple (AAPL) has a Disruption Score 2. Click here to learn how we calculate the Disruption Score.