Google stock surges 65% in 2025. Can it keep going up?

After a year like 2025, it’s fair to ask whether Google stock can keep going up in 2026—or whether most of the good news is already priced in.

Alphabet soared 65% in 2025, its best year since 2009.

That’s not normal behavior for a company already worth well over a trillion dollars.

Stocks that big don’t usually double off the lows in nine months unless something fundamental changes.

In Google’s case, two things did: the AI narrative flipped, and the worst legal fears eased.

But strong rebounds often create a new problem. Expectations rise faster than reality.

Early in 2025, investors were genuinely worried about Google.

Search looked vulnerable. AI chat tools threatened to pull users away. Alphabet dropped nearly 20% in the first quarter, its worst stretch in years.

That fear turned out to be excessive.

Google responded faster than many expected, reshuffled leadership around Gemini, and pushed new features aggressively. Some of them worked. Gemini gained users. Image generation took off. Engagement improved. The stock followed.

That explains why the GOOGL stock went up. It doesn’t automatically explain why it should keep going up at the same pace.

One reason for caution is Google's size.

When a company like Google rallies 65% in a single year, it’s not just optimism—it’s a re-rating.

Investors are saying, “We believe this company will grow faster and be more important than we thought.”

For that to continue in 2026, Google needs to keep surprising people. Simply meeting expectations won’t be enough.

Another concern is spending.

Alphabet raised its 2025 capital spending forecast to as much as $93 billion.

That’s an enormous number, even by Big Tech standards.

AI infrastructure is expensive. Chips, data centers, energy, talent—it all adds up.

This spending may pay off long term, but in the short run it pressures margins and free cash flow.

Markets tend to tolerate heavy investment during turnarounds. They get less patient once the turnaround story is accepted.

Then there’s competition. Gemini is improving, but it still trails ChatGPT overall.

AI is not a winner-take-all market yet, but it is a brutal one.

Rivals have deep pockets, strong ecosystems, and their own distribution advantages.

Google doesn’t just need good AI. It needs AI that protects search revenue, enhances ads, and fits naturally into products people already use every day. That’s a harder task than launching flashy demos.

So can the stock keep rising in 2026?

Yes—but probably not the way it did in 2025.

A more realistic outcome is slower, uneven gains tied to execution. If AI-powered search boosts engagement and ad pricing, the stock can grind higher.

If spending explodes without clear returns, it can stall. If competition intensifies faster than monetization improves, expectations will reset again.

Google doesn’t look broken. It looks expensive relative to how much certainty investors are assuming.

After a year like 2025, the easy money has been made. From here, Alphabet has to earn every additional dollar of market value the hard way—through results, not just hype.

That doesn’t make it a bad stock. It just means 2026 is about proof, not promises.

Google (GOOGL) has a Disruption Score of 4.

Click here to learn how we calculate the Disruption Score.