Analysis | Opinion
Tesla's building several future businesses at once
Summary
Tesla’s stock is down in early 2026 due to FSD scrutiny, slower EV deliveries, and macro pressure, but the core argument is that its long-term AI, robotics, and energy businesses matter more than near-term noise.
Beneath the surface, Tesla’s fundamentals improved, with Q4 2025 gross margin rising above 20% and the energy storage business reaching about $12.8 billion in 2025 revenue with stronger profitability than EVs.
The biggest upside is no longer just cars, but robotaxis, Cybercab, Optimus robots, and chip manufacturing ambitions, which position Tesla as a broader AI, autonomy, and industrial platform.
- By Chris Wood, Chief Investment Strategist at RiskHedge
Tesla (TSLA) is one of the most extraordinary companies ever created, and it keeps getting more interesting every year.
Yes, the company makes electric vehicles (EVs). But what it’s really building is the world’s leading platform for real-world AI to power self-driving cars and humanoid robots.
Add in beyond world-class manufacturing and a fast-growing energy storage business, and you have a company perfectly built for the biggest shifts ahead in transportation, work, and clean power.
The stock has had a rough start to 2026, down about 10% so far this year. I (Chris Wood) see a few things weighing on it:
An NHTSA investigation into Tesla’s FSD system was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis.
EV delivery growth has been sluggish.
Broad market macro concerns.
But none of it changes what Tesla is building.
The business is getting stronger beneath the surface.
Meanwhile, the financial picture underneath all the noise is encouraging. In Q4 2025, Tesla was able to get its gross profit margin above 20% for the first time since Q4 2022.
For the full year of 2025, its energy storage business—big Megapack batteries and home Powerwalls—brought in nearly $12.8 billion in revenue, reflecting annual growth of 27%, with a gross profit margin of about 30%. That’s more profitable than the EV business.
And progress continues on the autonomy front. Tesla started running paid robotaxi rides in Austin (finally) with no safety driver and no chase car following behind.
Real customers are hopping in, and the cars handle everything themselves. Full Self-Driving (FSD) software keeps improving with every update, and more than a million people now pay for it.
The real upside goes far beyond selling cars.
The most exciting developments at Tesla right now have almost nothing to do with traditional EV sales.
Musk said Tesla’s robotaxi fleet is now on an “exponential curve,” potentially doubling every month. Production of the Cybercab—a simple, two-seat robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals—is set to begin in April. Then there’s the Optimus humanoid robots. They’re still early stage but already doing simple factory tasks.
Tesla is preparing to launch the next version, called Gen 3—which Musk said is so human-like that people could be confused into thinking it’s a person—in a few months by converting its entire Model S and X production line in Fremont into an Optimus factory, with a long-term goal of producing 1 million robots per year from that facility alone.
And recently, Musk unveiled the TeraFab: a massive joint venture between Tesla and SpaceX to manufacture chips at a scale the industry has never come close to seeing—securing Tesla’s chip supply for decades of robotaxi and Optimus growth.
With a track record of turning game-changing ideas into real products like no one else, I believe Tesla’s advantages are getting stronger—not weaker.
The stock is likely to remain volatile because the company is building several future businesses at once.
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Chris Wood is Chief Investment Strategist at RiskHedge. To get more ideas like this from him, check out his substack Grow or Die.
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