U.S. data center electricity demand could reach 106 GW in 2035. The estimate is among the highest long-range projections so far. The country had about 25 GW of operating capacity in 2024.

The increase reflects larger average sizes for about 150 major data center proposals announced over the past year. More than one-quarter exceed 500 MW, the firm said.

Long-term projections are rare because federal data from the Energy Information Administration generally extends only two or three years. Some analysts and company leaders warn that an artificial intelligence surge or speculative proposals may be pushing forecasts too high.

Grid Strategies said in a November report that utility expectations of 90 GW of added load by 2030 appeared inflated. Market conditions point closer to 65 GW of growth in that period, the group said. A July Department of Energy report estimated the need for 100 GW of additional peak capacity by 2030, with data centers responsible for half. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projected those facilities could supply up to 12% of U.S. peak demand by 2028.

Data center development spreads beyond hubs such as Northern Virginia, metro Atlanta and central Ohio. Planned capacity is extending through Virginia and the Carolinas, into eastern Pennsylvania, and outward from Chicago. Additional proposals are appearing in Texas and Gulf Coast states.

Much of the build-out is expected across the PJM Interconnection, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. BNEF said PJM alone could see 31 GW of new data center load in five years, exceeding expected generation additions.

The North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned last year of elevated summer shortfall risks through 2026 and beyond. Some experts disputed its approach, noting that regions not facing rapid data center expansion may be better positioned.

Other analysts expect some proposed capacity to fade due to chip shortages and duplicated permit filings. A July study by London Economics International said meeting 2030 U.S. projections would require 90% of global chip supply, calling that scenario unrealistic.

Grid operators face an inflection point as they work to integrate large data centers while maintaining reliable service.