MSCI`s decision could reshape how companies hold Bitcoin

MSCI (MSCI) is preparing a ruling that could affect how companies holding large crypto and Bitcoin reserves are treated in global stock indexes. The decision is scheduled for January 15 and may influence capital flows tied to benchmark tracking funds.

MSCI Inc. is a publicly traded index provider based in New York. Its indexes guide investment strategies linked to more than $18 trillion in assets worldwide. Funds tracking these benchmarks often must buy or sell shares when index rules change.

On October 10, MSCI opened a consultation proposing to exclude companies with 50 percent or more of their assets in digital assets. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were grouped together under the proposal. MSCI said such firms resemble investment vehicles rather than operating companies.

The proposal identified 39 companies, including Strategy and Metaplanet. Bitcoin prices fell sharply the same day, beginning a wider market pullback.

Attention increased in late November after analysts at JPMorgan warned of possible forced selling. They estimated billions of dollars in potential outflows if exclusions were implemented by MSCI and later copied by other index providers.

Estimates from Bitcoin for Corporations suggest total forced selling could reach $10 billion to $15 billion over a year. The consultation period closed on December 31.

Bitcoin for Corporations organized opposition to the proposal. The group submitted a letter with more than 1,500 signatures and held discussions with MSCI researchers and executives. Eight of the affected companies are members of the coalition.

The group said the proposal did not distinguish between Bitcoin and other digital assets. It also said the consultation was prompted by Metaplanet’s recent capital actions rather than Strategy’s larger holdings.

MSCI’s final decision will take effect February 1 if approved. Possible outcomes include implementation, a delay for further review, or withdrawal of the proposal.

Markets are pricing in significant risk. Traders on Polymarket assign high odds to Strategy being removed from MSCI indexes by the end of March.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has also contacted MSCI directly. Additional opposition has come from Strive Asset Management and investor Bill Miller.

The ruling may shape how traditional finance treats Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets.