China sounds alarm over humanoid robotics frenzy

China’s top economic planner issued an unusual alert about growing bubble risks in the country’s humanoid robotics industry. The National Development and Reform Commission said the sector is showing signs of overheating as investment and new entrants accelerate.

NDRC spokeswoman Li Chao said more than 150 companies and startups are developing similar humanoid models. She warned that the crowded field increases the chance of a classic boom-and-bust cycle and could hinder genuine technological progress. Li said fast-growing frontier industries often struggle to balance rapid expansion with the threat of speculative excess, and the robotics sector is now facing that challenge.

The warning comes as Tesla moves ahead with plans to scale production of its Optimus humanoid robot next year. Interest in the field has surged in recent years, helped by rising public attention to experimental products such as Unitree’s robot dog, which drew global notice after a flamethrower-equipped version appeared online. An imported version without the attachment has circulated among consumers curious about the technology.

Market enthusiasm has been strong. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index, which tracks Chinese companies involved in humanoid and robotics commercialization, is up 28.5 percent so far this year. The index has doubled from its lows in 2024, reflecting broad investor confidence in the sector’s growth prospects.

Analysts and banks have highlighted the pace of development as companies refine early prototypes and begin pilot production efforts. Industry roundups have noted expanding supply-chain activity in China and early testing programs launched by major manufacturers, including Tesla. Other reports have pointed to the auto industry as a likely leader in the first wave of humanoid robot adoption.

Forecasts remain optimistic despite the regulator’s warning. Citi projects that the humanoid robot industry could reach a value of $7 trillion by 2050. The bank expects mass adoption to develop in the 2030s, with steady progress in the decade leading up to that shift.

The NDRC did not outline policy steps but signaled that close monitoring will continue as the sector advances.