China leads the US in humanoid robotics startups

China just pulled ahead of the United States in humanoid robotics startups.

Barely.

23 companies to America’s 22.

And in 2025 alone, investors poured 2.65 billion dollars into humanoid robotics startups, more than the combined total from 2018 through 2024.

China now holds the edge in startup count. India sits at 12. The United Kingdom has six. Germany has five. France has three. Australia and Japan each have three. Austria and Canada have two apiece.

More important than startup count is production. China’s Unitree Robotics and Agibot each produced more than 5,000 humanoid robots in 2025. No other country is close to that scale.

In the US, Boston Dynamics and Tesla are preparing to ramp output of Atlas and Optimus in 2026. Europe fields players like Engineered Arts and Neura Robotics, but at smaller scale. As we know also Tesla is shifting its strategy toward AI and robotics.

The disruption behind the news: The number that matters is not 23 versus 22. It is 5,000 units. Twice.

Once you cross a few thousand units per year, you unlock cost curves.

Components get cheaper.

Supply chains stabilize.

Software improves through real world data.

The jump from 500 robots to 5,000 robots is not 10x impact. It is closer to 100x in learning velocity.

If Chinese firms are already shipping at that scale, they are compressing the timeline to sub 50,000 dollar humanoids for industrial use. That is the tipping point where factories stop debating and start ordering.

Labor math makes this simple. A warehouse worker in the US costs roughly 40,000 to 60,000 dollars per year fully loaded. A humanoid robot that costs 80,000 upfront and runs for five years at 10,000 per year in maintenance is suddenly competitive. Push hardware costs down 30 percent and the decision becomes obvious.

For businesses it is about predictable labor in a world of demographic decline and wage pressure. For China, it is also about exporting embodied AI the way it exported solar panels and EVs.

If China scales first, it sets pricing expectations globally. That squeezes US startups that are still in prototype mode. It also puts pressure on regulators. Once humanoids hit factory floors at scale in Asia, American firms will demand fewer deployment barriers to stay competitive.

What to watch next?

First, production targets for 2026.

If Tesla or Boston Dynamics announce volumes in the tens of thousands, the race resets. If they stay under 5,000 units, China widens the lead.

Second, price disclosures.

The first company to publicly offer a sub 60,000 dollar humanoid with real industrial uptime will trigger bulk orders.

Third, vertical focus.

Warehousing and light manufacturing will move first. Home use is hype until unit economics drop below 30,000 dollars.

Finally, watch supply chains.

Actuators, batteries, and AI chips will become the choke points. The country that controls those at scale controls the pace of humanoid adoption.

China humanoid robotics momentum is about who builds the manufacturing base for the next labor platform. Robotics is one of the 7 disruptive technologies that will change the world. The country that wins scale will write the rules.